Perhaps the more significant element is that the window for teams to shed unwanted payroll before submitting final keeper rosters by October 5th at 12:00am effectively closes with the passing of the trade deadline. The final day of Major League Baseball's regular season (and fantasy's playoff season) is October 4th and all keeper rosters must be submitted by no later than midnight that night.
So we're looking at about 5 full days left of activity, and at this point it should be fairly evident who's buying and who's selling. Two teams, Jordie's ball smashers and Yosef's YBombers, appear to be all but mathematically eliminated from the race for the top 6 spots. Kedro's Black Sox appear to be close enough to the pack, but because they have already tossed roughly 200 IP more than every other team, odds are it's better to start planning for 2010. A comeback is hard enough to mount on even footing, but with only 185.2 IP remaining (as of writing every other team had at least 380 IP left) it is hard to imagine the Black Sox making any real push towards the playoffs.
Ilya's Master Batters, Shay's Eric Byrnes Joints and Danny's Homestead Grays are in the midst of a three-way dog fight for the final 2 playoff positions, and are caught between balancing the budgets for the future and trying to secure their rosters for the playoff push.
Jason M.'s WinOrLoseHitTheBooze, Buster's The Screwballs, Jason G.'s The Degenerates and Grosh's Starcity Arms all appear to be playoff locks. Vying for the first two spots and subsequent playoff byes are all that's left to secure, so these teams are likely more interested in figuring out their own roster values than acquiring additional pieces at the deadline. Three of these teams may actually be looking to shed excess "fat" on the payroll that they feel they wont need down the stretch and wont be bringing back for 2010. WinOrLoseHitTheBooze has been racking up expensive veterans and shipping out young prospects all season and are making a clear push for the title this season. Don't expect that trend to change.
Here's a few players that likely could be had for less than "fair" market price:
C - Brian McCann $25 OR Victor Martinez $18 - Martinez, $7 cheaper than McCann might be the easier player to move and it's not rocket science to say that Grosh would love to move one of these two expensive, productive, top-tier backstops.
1B David Ortiz $26 - Ortiz has been underachieving all season long and the ball smashers would likely welcome any trade that would bring any value back for Ortiz.
2B/SS Alexei Ramirez $19 - The Cuban Missile carried plenty of hype coming into the season, but struggled mightily early on. A recent upswing has again endeared Ramirez to Eric Byrnes Joints but his position eligibility makes him an attractive piece and may draw interest from other teams down the stretch.
2B Dan Uggla $17 - Uggla has had an up and down season, but is still valuable at just $17. The problem however is the Homestead Grays already have an abundance of expensive heavy hitters in Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, B.J. Upton, Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Matt Kemp. It could be hard to squeeze Uggla into the team's future plans so he could be had for reasonable value.
SS Jose Reyes $39 - Reyes has been on the DL since the 21st of May at is burning a $39 hole in Eric Byrnes Joints pockets and could easily be had for a couple serviceable players.
SS Jimmy Rollins $31 - Rollins has effectively played and priced himself out of the Master Batters future plans and although he's been dialing up the heat in the last month or so, it would still be a shocker if Rollins received a contract. Look for him to be aggressively shopped before the deadline.
SS Jhonny Peralta $14 - Complete bust, time to cut losses. If anyone out there still likes Peralta, he's there for the taking.
3B Chipper Jones $21 - Jones has been relatively healthy this year, playing in 88 of the Braves' first 100 games but his production has dipped slightly. At 37 years old, Jones is nearing the end of his career and isn't likely to figure into many teams long-term plans. The only sticking point to a potential deal is the absence of another 3B on the active roster to replace Jones. WinOrLoseHitTheBooze has Melvin Mora waiting in the wings at AAA, but Mora has struggled enough this year to be ruled out as a starter for a competitive team in the playoffs. A 3B would likely have to go the other way, providing a big obstacle for any potential deal.
OF Josh Hamilton $31 - Selected by the Degenerates 13th overall, Hamilton will undoubtedly resign just based on his potential but 2009 has been a lost season for the Texas slugger. With his history of injuries and drug addiction one has to question his durability. His star has definitely faded and a true believer could likely acquire his services at a discounted rate.
OF Carlos Beltran $28 and OF Carlos Quentin $27 - Both hitters were supposed to help anchor the Black Sox offence but have been rendered almost completely useless by injury. Their stock has slipped a bit but they both remain strong bets going forward.
OF Jacoby Ellsbury $25 and OF Shane Victorino $24 - Two players having fine season, but the general consensus is that they are overpriced and playing for WinOrLoseHitTheBooze doesn't make matters any easier. A recent rough estimate had the team's payroll around the $500 mark and these two players inevitable wont find themselves amongst the team's keepers at the end of the season. Jason M. might not be actively shopping these players as they could play a vital role in his push for the title. Although they could both be had for the right price, I don't expect this team to be selling as much as they should coming up to the deadline. Another question is if any other managers in the league feel either of these guys are long-term keepers at their current prices.
SP Ervin Santana $21 - BUST. You could probably grab Ervin from the YBombers for a pair of greasy Big Macs, and still get Chris Davis as a throw-in.
SP Jake Peavy $21 - Peavy is a legitimate ace at an affordable rate but has been hampered by injury problems this year. Has been part of an impressive group of bust pitchers that has confined the ball smashers to the league basement. Of Daisuke Matsuzaka, Chien-Ming Wang, Chris Young, Randy Johnson and Gil Meche, Peavy retains the best value of the group. He could be moved if the ball smashers decide to opt for a full rebuild, but if nothing forces his hand, Jordie could bring Peavy back to anchor a staff with future stud Tommy Hanson and potential 1st overall pick Stephen Strasburg.SP Roy Oswalt $19 - Oswalt has been an effective ace for years, but there's no doubt the mileage is pilling up. With the Black Sox on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, Oswalt could be shipped to a contender for a useful long-term asset.
