Sunday, August 23, 2009

Breakin 'em Down: Black Sox

Depth Chart

blue = can only receive a maximum 2 year contract
black = can receive a maximum 4 year contract
red = already under contract


C - Chris Iannetta, Miguel Montero
1B - Aubrey Huff, Jorge Cantu
, John Bowker
2B - Chase Utley, Akinori Iwamura, Jeff Baker, Eugenio Velez

SS - Jack Wilson, Mike Aviles

3B - David Wright, Ian Stewart
LF - Carlos Quentin, Gary Sheffield, Lastings Milledge, Fred Lewis
CF - Carlos Beltran, Dexter Fowler
, Mike Cameron, Carlos Gomez
RF - Alex Rios, Jay Bruce, Vladimir Guerrero

SP - Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson, Carlos Zambrano, Jair Jurrjens, Kyle Lohse, Nick Blackburn, Paul Maholm, Joe Saunders, Kevin Slowey
, Fausto Carmona, Matt Harrison, Dana Eveland, Kyle Kendrick

RP - Bobby Jenks, Trevor Hoffman, Zach Miner,


Prospects

C-

1B - Juan Miranda

2B -

SS -

3B - Dayan Viciendo, Wes Hodges, Neil Walker
LF - Fernando Martinez, Nick Evans

CF -
RF -

SP - Clay Buchholz, Neftali Feliz, Radhames Liz, Jonathon Niese,
Kevin Mulvey
RP -

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Breakin 'em Down: Homestead Grays

Depth Chart

blue = can only receive a maximum 2 year contract
black = can receive a maximum 4 year contract
red = already under contract


C - Jason Varitek ($1), Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($2)
1B -
Prince Fielder ($25), Justin Morneau ($26), Miguel Cabrera ($34)
2B - Dan Uggla ($17),
Maicer Izturis ($1)
SS - Yunel Escobar ($9), Orlando Cabrera ($7),
Erick Aybar ($2)
3B - Alex Rodriguez ($39), Mike Lowell ($9)
LF - Hideki Matsui ($8), David DeJesus ($10), Delmon Young ($12)
CF - B.J. Upton ($30), Curtis Granderson ($26),
Carlos Gonzalez ($2)
RF - Matt Kemp ($26)

SP - Zack Greinke ($14),
Clayton Kershaw ($3), Ubaldo Jimenez ($6), Ricky Romero (N/A), Erik Bedard ($9), John Maine ($6), Scott Kazmir ($17), Francisco Liriano ($17), Johnny Cueto ($8), Jonathan Sanchez ($5), Rich Hill ($1), Marc Rzepczynski (N/A), Barry Zito ($1), Jorge De La Rosa ($1), Chad Gaudin ($1), Jeremy Bonderman ($4), Dave Bush ($2), Shaun Marcum ($1)

RP - Brian Wilson ($11), Chad Qualls ($10),
George Sherrill ($5), Phil Hughes ($2), Daniel Bard ($1), Franklin Morales ($1)

Prospects

C- Jeff Clement ($6),
J.P. Arencibia ($1)
1B -
Steve Pearce ($1), Logan Morrison ($1)
2B -
Sean Rodriguez ($1)
SS -
Reid Brignac ($1)
3B -
LF -
Travis Snider ($7)
CF -
RF -

SP -
Brad Mills ($1), David Purcey ($2), Carlos Carrasco ($1), Wade Davis ($1), Junichi Tazawa ($1), Jake Arrieta ($1)
RP -
Scott Elbert ($1)

It's been an up and down year for the Homestead Grays, starting with 1st-rounder Alex Rodriguez missing roughly the first month of the season with a hip injury. Inconsistency in the rotation has plagued the team all season long, but Zack Greinke is a legimate budding ace to build around. The high-profile, high-power and high-paid offence carries the team but with seven regulars all $25 or more, it will be interesting to see who the Homestead Grays group together to form the core of the franchise for years to come.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Trade Deadline: Penny Pinching

So we're less than a week away from the final trade deadline, August 2nd at 11:59pm. This deadline is significant for two reasons. The first being the more obvious notion that teams will no longer be able to acquire any outside help, via trade for the postseason and the push that leads up to it.

Perhaps the more significant element is that the window for teams to shed unwanted payroll before submitting final keeper rosters by October 5th at 12:00am effectively closes with the passing of the trade deadline. The final day of Major League Baseball's regular season (and fantasy's playoff season) is October 4th and all keeper rosters must be submitted by no later than midnight that night.

So we're looking at about 5 full days left of activity, and at this point it should be fairly evident who's buying and who's selling. Two teams, Jordie's ball smashers and Yosef's YBombers, appear to be all but mathematically eliminated from the race for the top 6 spots. Kedro's Black Sox appear to be close enough to the pack, but because they have already tossed roughly 200 IP more than every other team, odds are it's better to start planning for 2010. A comeback is hard enough to mount on even footing, but with only 185.2 IP remaining (as of writing every other team had at least 380 IP left) it is hard to imagine the Black Sox making any real push towards the playoffs.

Ilya's Master Batters, Shay's Eric Byrnes Joints and Danny's Homestead Grays are in the midst of a three-way dog fight for the final 2 playoff positions, and are caught between balancing the budgets for the future and trying to secure their rosters for the playoff push.

Jason M.'s WinOrLoseHitTheBooze, Buster's The Screwballs, Jason G.'s The Degenerates and Grosh's Starcity Arms all appear to be playoff locks. Vying for the first two spots and subsequent playoff byes are all that's left to secure, so these teams are likely more interested in figuring out their own roster values than acquiring additional pieces at the deadline. Three of these teams may actually be looking to shed excess "fat" on the payroll that they feel they wont need down the stretch and wont be bringing back for 2010. WinOrLoseHitTheBooze has been racking up expensive veterans and shipping out young prospects all season and are making a clear push for the title this season. Don't expect that trend to change.

Here's a few players that likely could be had for less than "fair" market price:


C - Brian McCann $25 OR Victor Martinez $18 - Martinez, $7 cheaper than McCann might be the easier player to move and it's not rocket science to say that Grosh would love to move one of these two expensive, productive, top-tier backstops.

1B David Ortiz $26 - Ortiz has been underachieving all season long and the ball smashers would likely welcome any trade that would bring any value back for Ortiz.

2B/SS Alexei Ramirez $19 - The Cuban Missile carried plenty of hype coming into the season, but struggled mightily early on. A recent upswing has again endeared Ramirez to Eric Byrnes Joints but his position eligibility makes him an attractive piece and may draw interest from other teams down the stretch.

2B Dan Uggla $17 - Uggla has had an up and down season, but is still valuable at just $17. The problem however is the Homestead Grays already have an abundance of expensive heavy hitters in Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, B.J. Upton, Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Matt Kemp. It could be hard to squeeze Uggla into the team's future plans so he could be had for reasonable value.

SS Jose Reyes $39 - Reyes has been on the DL since the 21st of May at is burning a $39 hole in Eric Byrnes Joints pockets and could easily be had for a couple serviceable players.

SS Jimmy Rollins $31 - Rollins has effectively played and priced himself out of the Master Batters future plans and although he's been dialing up the heat in the last month or so, it would still be a shocker if Rollins received a contract. Look for him to be aggressively shopped before the deadline.

SS Jhonny Peralta $14 - Complete bust, time to cut losses. If anyone out there still likes Peralta, he's there for the taking.

3B Chipper Jones $21 - Jones has been relatively healthy this year, playing in 88 of the Braves' first 100 games but his production has dipped slightly. At 37 years old, Jones is nearing the end of his career and isn't likely to figure into many teams long-term plans. The only sticking point to a potential deal is the absence of another 3B on the active roster to replace Jones. WinOrLoseHitTheBooze has Melvin Mora waiting in the wings at AAA, but Mora has struggled enough this year to be ruled out as a starter for a competitive team in the playoffs. A 3B would likely have to go the other way, providing a big obstacle for any potential deal.


OF Josh Hamilton $31 - Selected by the Degenerates 13th overall, Hamilton will undoubtedly resign just based on his potential but 2009 has been a lost season for the Texas slugger. With his history of injuries and drug addiction one has to question his durability. His star has definitely faded and a true believer could likely acquire his services at a discounted rate.

OF Carlos Beltran $28 and OF Carlos Quentin $27 - Both hitters were supposed to help anchor the Black Sox offence but have been rendered almost completely useless by injury. Their stock has slipped a bit but they both remain strong bets going forward.

OF Jacoby Ellsbury $25 and OF Shane Victorino $24 - Two players having fine season, but the general consensus is that they are overpriced and playing for WinOrLoseHitTheBooze doesn't make matters any easier. A recent rough estimate had the team's payroll around the $500 mark and these two players inevitable wont find themselves amongst the team's keepers at the end of the season. Jason M. might not be actively shopping these players as they could play a vital role in his push for the title. Although they could both be had for the right price, I don't expect this team to be selling as much as they should coming up to the deadline. Another question is if any other managers in the league feel either of these guys are long-term keepers at their current prices.

SP Ervin Santana $21 - BUST. You could probably grab Ervin from the YBombers for a pair of greasy Big Macs, and still get Chris Davis as a throw-in.

SP Jake Peavy $21 - Peavy is a legitimate ace at an affordable rate but has been hampered by injury problems this year. Has been part of an impressive group of bust pitchers that has confined the ball smashers to the league basement. Of Daisuke Matsuzaka, Chien-Ming Wang, Chris Young, Randy Johnson and Gil Meche, Peavy retains the best value of the group. He could be moved if the ball smashers decide to opt for a full rebuild, but if nothing forces his hand, Jordie could bring Peavy back to anchor a staff with future stud Tommy Hanson and potential 1st overall pick Stephen Strasburg.

SP Roy Oswalt $19 - Oswalt has been an effective ace for years, but there's no doubt the mileage is pilling up. With the Black Sox on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, Oswalt could be shipped to a contender for a useful long-term asset.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Cards take a Holliday!!

The St. Louis Cardinals have made the first splash in the trade market leading up to this year's deadline by acquiring slugging outfielder Matt Holliday from the Oakland A's in exchange for three prospects.

3B Brett Wallace, St. Louis' top prospect was originally selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 42nd round of the 2005 draft but didn't sign. He was later selected by the Cardinals, 13th overall in the 2008 draft. Wallace, a power hitting corner infielder who many think may end up at first long-term (making him expendable in St. Louis), is the marquee prospect in the deal and should be one of the top 20 players selected in ThaGreenMonster's 2010 Entry Draft. The A's also received 24-year old right-hander Clayton Mortensen (supplemental 1st rounder 2007) and outfielder Shane Peterson (2nd rounder 2008).

Matt Holliday's value gets a significant bump, moving away from the vast Oakland Colliseum into a much more hitter friendly Busch Stadium, not to mention getting to hit behind "El Hombre" Albert Pujols. At $29, The Degenerates now has a harder decision to make regarding Holliday's future. If he had remained in Oakland it appeared unlikely that he was worth signing at a cost of $29. Now, perhaps things have changed. At the very least, he has become a lot more attractive to other managers and has increased his trade value.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Holliday, who has not put up the kind of numbers expected from $25+ outfielders this year.

He certainly got off on the right foot, going 4-for-5 with a SB in his debut with the Cards, batting cleanup behind Pujols.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

First Half Recap

With the All-Star break all but done, and the second half of the season looming on the horizon, let's take a quick look back at some of the stories from the 1st half.

- A trio of arms and a pair of legs has carried The Degenerates through the first half of the season, leaving the team atop league standings with 6113.5 points. Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright and Jon Lester have paced a mostly young and unproven pitching staff combining for a 28-15 record, while the rest of the staff has gone just 22-35. That's right, those three have combined for 56% of the teams' wins. The offence has been paced by Carl Crawford's league-leading 44 first half steals, contributing to the Degenerates league-high of 124 SBs (Only two other teams above 100, The Screwballs 123 and Eric Byrnes Joints 115).

- Despite the fact the Black Sox have used a total of 1183.0 IP thus far, roughly 200 more than the next team, they have used up the least amount of man games for position players. At the break, the Black Sox have 877 GP. Every other team has used at least 917 and the Homestead Grays have used the most with 970. The first half has been up and down for the Black Sox, as they rode their lead in IP to the top of the standings for the first month or so, but a power outage (dead last in league HR with 103), and an 3.98 staff ERA has the team on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in.

A run-down of the each team's staff Era's:

3.61 ERA - WinOrLoseHitTheBooze - (394 ER in 981 IP)
3.64 ERA - Master Batters - (375 ER in 927 IP)
3.66 ERA - The Degenerates - (367 ER in 902.1 IP)
3.69 ERA - Starcity Arms - (372 ER in 908 IP)
3.69 ERA - Homestead Grays - (358 ER in 872.1 IP)
3.96 ERA - Eric Byrnes Joints - (418 ER in 951 IP)
3.98 ERA - Black Sox - (523 ER in 1183 IP)
4.02 ERA - The Screwballs - (424 ER in 948 IP)
4.79 ERA - YBombers - (481 ER in 904.1 IP)
4.85 ERA - Ball Smashers - (447 ER in 829.2 IP)

- With the biggest collection of busts and walking wounded among any staff in the league, the Ball Smashers have compiled a disastrous 39-67 staff record, sending the team into a length stay in the cellar throughout the first-half of the season. Jake Peavy, Justin Duchscherer and Chris Young have been injured much of the season. Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Chien-Ming Wang all got off to horrible starts and none of these 6 starters are currently in the team's rotation (Liriano traded and the others on the DL or in AAA). Young flamethrower Tommy Hanson, recently acquired real-life teammate Javier Vazquez and the potential to draft Stephen Strasbury 1st Overall in 2010 could form a solid core for the Ball Smashers rebuilt rotation. Peavy and Matsuzaka are strong bets to return to form but Duchscherer, Young and Wang may all wind up as unsigned free agents in the offseason.

- The Master Batters lone MLB All-Star, 1B Albert Pujols, leads all hitters with an outstanding 473 points at the break (32 HR, 87 RBI). 1B Prince Fielder (394), 2B Chase Utley (369), LF Carl Crawford (369), LF Jason Bay (369), 3B Mark Reynolds (366), 1B Justin Morneau (365), 2B Ian Kinsler (362), RF Jayson Werth (350) and SS Hanley Ramirez (348) round out the top-1o hitters in the first half.

- The biggest busts among the top 100 O-Ranked Yahoo Hitters:

SS Jose Reyes (131 points), CF Josh Hamilton (132), LF Manny Ramirez (171), LF Carlos Quentin (113), 3B Aramis Ramirez (77), RF Vladimir Guerrero (127), and C Ryan Doumit (43) have all missed significant chunks of time due to injury.

C Geovany Soto (168), RF Magglio Ordonez (184), 3B Garrett Atkins (159), 1B Chris Davis (188) have been amongst the most ineffective hitters all season.

- Hitters currently amongst the top 25 in points but outside the top 100 O-Ranked:

3B Mark Reynolds (197 O-Rank), RF Jayson Werth (128), 1B Carlos Pena (101), RF Justin Upton (129), CF Torii Hunter (113), RF Shin-Soo Choo (183), and DH Adam Lind (190)

- Top 5 pitchers in points:

Tim Lincecum (509 points), Zack Greinke (487.5), Dan Haren (482.5), Felix Hernandez (424), and Justin Verlander (421).

25-year old Zack Greinke leads a crop of emerging young break out starters. Others enjoying outstanding first-halfs are Josh Johnson, Jered Weaver, Adam Wainwright, Edwin Jackson, Wandy Rodriguez, Nick Blackburn and Zach Duke... all in the top 25 in points.